The Prisma Fiscal is a system designed and managed by the Economic Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance to collect market expectations for the main Brazilian fiscal variables, thereby providing a view from respected private sector analysts on the prospects of the country’s fiscal policy.
By publicizing the collected expectations, the Prisma Fiscal brings public awareness of the fiscal situation of the country. Moreover, it offers to citizens and business leaders a reliable perspective on the future trajectory of the surveyed variables, therefore becoming an important planning and decision-making tool for these agents in different time horizons.
Finally, by promoting quarterly meetings between representatives of the participating institutions and Ministry of Finance authorities and giving visibility to the institutions with the best forecasting performance, the Prisma Fiscal incentivizes institutions’ continued participation and the improvement of the fiscal studies in the country.
Prisma Fiscal Monthly Report
The report provides a consolidated view of the expectations collected up to 5thwork day of each month. These expectations are presented in five statistics: median, mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum.
It presents the relative frequency distribution of the expectations collected in the last three months for each variable surveyed.
Short Run Podium
Monthly report that presents the best forecasters regarding monthly variables. The accuracy is measured considering the average forecast errors over a 6-month period. Find the methodology here (only in Portuguese).
Long Run Podium
Annual report that presents the best forecasters regarding annual variables for a specific year. The accuracy is measured considering a weighted average of the forecast errors over a 18-month period (from July of the previous year to December of the current one). . Find the methodology here (only in Portuguese).
Short Run of The Year
Annual report that presents the best short run forecasters over the course of a specific year. Find the methodology here (only in Portuguese).